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Real Yields At Recent Highs Ahead Of Powell, CPI

US TSYS
  • 10Y real yields have increased to recent highs of -71bps (currently -71.5bps) ahead of an important week for inflation and Fedspeak.
  • Nominal yields are 4.4bps higher than Fri close, testing new pandemic era highs, whilst breakevens are largely unchanged as the divergence seen since early this month continues.
  • The 10Y breakeven has fallen back from a peak of 2.67% on Jan 4 to 2.52% as a more aggressive rate hike path is priced in.
  • CPI for Dec is on Wed followed by PPI for Dec on Thu and consumer inflation expectations for Jan on Fri.
  • Before that though, Powell (nomination hearing at the Senate) along with Mester and George (both 2022 voters) speak tomorrow, followed by Brainard, Evans and Williams later in the week of those voting in 2022/23.
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