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Reasonable Details Behind March Retail Sales, But Q2 Momentum Looks Weak

CANADA DATA
  • Retail sales came in as expected in March at -1.4% M/M with surprisingly no revision from the low response rate prior advance.
  • The details gave a relatively stronger takeaway though, with sales ex autos at -0.3% M/M (cons -0.8) whilst core sales (ex autos, parts & gas) recorded their four straight gain with +0.3% M/M.
  • With retail prices falling -0.4% M/M on the month, overall volumes saw a decline of -1.0% M/M after -0.6% in Feb, but importantly this followed +1.5% in Jan for 4.9% annualized growth in Q1.
  • On Q2, the April nominal advance printed +0.2% M/M, an unsurprisingly limited rebound after CIBC had warned with the cold start to the spring and Quebec power outages. This builds on the weak momentum heading into Q2 – see charts.

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