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Recent Cyclical Lows Are In Sight

NZD

NZD/USD ground lower Wednesday, mostly due to better demand for the greenback. Fed Chair Powell revived recession fears as he suggested that curbing inflation will be a priority going forward.

  • Cross-asset signals may have applied some pressure late doors, as crude oil dipped, dragging Bloomberg Commodity Index lower.
  • NZD/USD sales allowed the pair to narrow in on its cyclical low of $0.6197 printed on Jun 14. The rate's 1-month risk reversal extended its pullback from Jun 28/two-week high.
  • Spot NZD/USD trades at $0.6226, up 6 pips on the day. If we get below $0.6197, bears could set their sights on May 22, 2020 low of $0.6081. Bulls need a jump above Jun 24/27 highs of $0.6327 before targeting Jun 16 high of $0.6396.
  • FinMin Robertson caught COVID-19 and is isolating at home, but he will continue deputising for PM Ardern for now. As a reminder, Ardern is in Europe for the "concluding stages" of trade talks with the EU.
  • ANZ will publish its Business Outlook Survey within a few hours. In addition, RBNZ Chief Economist Conway will speak at the National Property Conference.
  • Looking further afield, Friday will see the release of ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence, CoreLogic House Price Index & building permits.
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