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Recent Hawkish Move In SONIA Moderates A Little

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HomepageBank Of England (BOE) Market NewsBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

The aforementioned recovery/rally in gilts helps underpin SONIA futures, which last print flat to +7.5 through the blues, generally a little shy of session highs.

  • BoE-dated OIS shows ~35bp of cuts through ’24 and more than fully discounts the first 25bp cut come the end of the Nov MPC, with the recent hawkish move moderating a little today.
  • This morning’s UK labour market data provided the initial ‘dovish’ input, printing marginally softer than expected, before wider FI market matters came to the fore.
  • Monthly UK economic activity and GDP data crosses early Wednesday.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Jun-245.203+0.2
Aug-245.104-9.6
Sep-245.040-16.0
Nov-244.924-27.6
Dec-244.851-34.9
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The aforementioned recovery/rally in gilts helps underpin SONIA futures, which last print flat to +7.5 through the blues, generally a little shy of session highs.

  • BoE-dated OIS shows ~35bp of cuts through ’24 and more than fully discounts the first 25bp cut come the end of the Nov MPC, with the recent hawkish move moderating a little today.
  • This morning’s UK labour market data provided the initial ‘dovish’ input, printing marginally softer than expected, before wider FI market matters came to the fore.
  • Monthly UK economic activity and GDP data crosses early Wednesday.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Jun-245.203+0.2
Aug-245.104-9.6
Sep-245.040-16.0
Nov-244.924-27.6
Dec-244.851-34.9