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Recent House Price Declines Unusually Concentrated In Toronto

CANADA
  • Released last week, Teranet-National Bank house prices fell a seasonally adjusted -0.5% M/M in December.
  • It was the third consecutive decline and left prices down -0.5% annualized on a 3M/3M basis, the first decline on this basis since May after a brief surge higher in the summer and autumn.
  • The peaking in 5Y GoC yields north of 4% in September and October likely played a part in the cooling of housing activity with a lag.
  • However, the regional breakdown suggests unusual dispersion, with declines heavily concentrated in Toronto yet five of the eleven regions still growing strongly including Montreal +12% (see table below).
  • These five regions have been resilient to that prior tightening in financial conditions and could and could be due a tailwind ahead with 5Y yields since falling more than 100bps from their peak.

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