MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, January 14

MNI: ITALY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION NOV 0.3% M/M, -1.5% Y/Y WDA

MNI: ITALY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION NOV 0.3% M/M, -1.5% Y/Y WDA

MNI BRIEF: PBOC To Ensure Yuan Stable, Ease For Economy: Xuan

MNI BRIEF: China Yields Will Reflect Fundamentals - PBOC

MNI BRIEF: China Dec M1 Decline Narrows, M2 Quickens

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: EU, Greece Syndications

CHINA JAN-DEC NEW LOANS CNY18.09 TRLN VS MEDIAN CNY17.85 TRLN

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: Spain, Belgium Auction on Tuesday

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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GILTS: Recoveries Remain Shallow

GILTS
CEEMEABulletUKMarketsFixed Income Bullets

Gilts remain under pressure, with Chancellor Reeves’ weekend comments doing little to promote confidence.

  • Futures breach initial support at last week’s low (89.00), basing at 88.96, before a bounce to 89.25 last.
  • Yields little changed to 4bp higher, 50s relatively resolute.
  • 10s as high as 4.901% this morning vs. last week’s high of 4.921%.
  • 30s got near last week’s multi-decade high (5.473%), topping out at 5.469%.
  • 10-Year gilt/Bunds little changed on the day, around 225bp.
  • BoE-dated OIS shows 46bp of cuts through year-end vs. 49bp late on Friday. Last week’s extremes of ~39bp untested.
  • SONIA futures 0.5-5.5 lower, last week’s lows intact.
  • GBP750mln of short-dated APF sales from the BoE due this afternoon.
  • CPI data (Wednesday) headlines the domestic calendar this week. That reading will be much more consequential for markets than the monthly GDP (Thursday) and retail sales (Friday) data.
  • We will provide the usual data preview and review around the CPI release.
  • Comments from BoE dovish dissenter Taylor (Wednesday) also eyed.
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Gilts remain under pressure, with Chancellor Reeves’ weekend comments doing little to promote confidence.

  • Futures breach initial support at last week’s low (89.00), basing at 88.96, before a bounce to 89.25 last.
  • Yields little changed to 4bp higher, 50s relatively resolute.
  • 10s as high as 4.901% this morning vs. last week’s high of 4.921%.
  • 30s got near last week’s multi-decade high (5.473%), topping out at 5.469%.
  • 10-Year gilt/Bunds little changed on the day, around 225bp.
  • BoE-dated OIS shows 46bp of cuts through year-end vs. 49bp late on Friday. Last week’s extremes of ~39bp untested.
  • SONIA futures 0.5-5.5 lower, last week’s lows intact.
  • GBP750mln of short-dated APF sales from the BoE due this afternoon.
  • CPI data (Wednesday) headlines the domestic calendar this week. That reading will be much more consequential for markets than the monthly GDP (Thursday) and retail sales (Friday) data.
  • We will provide the usual data preview and review around the CPI release.
  • Comments from BoE dovish dissenter Taylor (Wednesday) also eyed.