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Free AccessRed Pack Inversion Retreats From Near Record Levels Intraday
- Front Eurodollars are back where they started the session but the red pack and beyond has more than unwound the sizeable early rally. The rally had been put down to spillover from gas curbs hitting EU growth plus a softer US retail backdrop, with that still being a key factor behind the day's slide in equities and few clear drivers of the subsequent sell-off in rates.
- Near-term ED yields are relatively pinned ahead of tomorrow's FOMC (EDZ2 -1.5bps) with Fed Funds implied hikes relatively little changed on the day at a cumulative 180bps of hikes over the four meetings to year-end to a terminal 3.38%.
- A 3.5bp increase for EDZ3 sees an unwinding of particularly steep inversion through 2023, but at -0.69, EDZ2/EDZ3 is still close to the lows seen both this cycle and historically when looking at 2nd vs 6th contracts over time, with building inversion through EDZ3/EDZ4 at -0.39. See chart.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.