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Red Pack Inversion Retreats From Near Record Levels Intraday

US EURODLR FUTURES
  • Front Eurodollars are back where they started the session but the red pack and beyond has more than unwound the sizeable early rally. The rally had been put down to spillover from gas curbs hitting EU growth plus a softer US retail backdrop, with that still being a key factor behind the day's slide in equities and few clear drivers of the subsequent sell-off in rates.
  • Near-term ED yields are relatively pinned ahead of tomorrow's FOMC (EDZ2 -1.5bps) with Fed Funds implied hikes relatively little changed on the day at a cumulative 180bps of hikes over the four meetings to year-end to a terminal 3.38%.
  • A 3.5bp increase for EDZ3 sees an unwinding of particularly steep inversion through 2023, but at -0.69, EDZ2/EDZ3 is still close to the lows seen both this cycle and historically when looking at 2nd vs 6th contracts over time, with building inversion through EDZ3/EDZ4 at -0.39. See chart.

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