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REFINING: Refining Margins to Stay Weak in H1 2025 Before Recovery: Macquarie

REFINING
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Weak oil refining margins will probably persist through H1 2025, accelerating the closure of capacity, but is expected to improve in the second half of the year, according to Macquarie cited by Bloomberg

  • Refining margins could potentially rise further toward record levels in 2026 assisted by a recovery in demand in China in the second half of next year.
  • “We are modeling significant capacity retirement coupled with limited greenfield refinery capacity additions beginning in 2026.”
  • “As a result, refining companies that have healthy balance sheets and well run, fully depreciated assets should be in a very favorable and maybe an unprecedented position.”
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Weak oil refining margins will probably persist through H1 2025, accelerating the closure of capacity, but is expected to improve in the second half of the year, according to Macquarie cited by Bloomberg

  • Refining margins could potentially rise further toward record levels in 2026 assisted by a recovery in demand in China in the second half of next year.
  • “We are modeling significant capacity retirement coupled with limited greenfield refinery capacity additions beginning in 2026.”
  • “As a result, refining companies that have healthy balance sheets and well run, fully depreciated assets should be in a very favorable and maybe an unprecedented position.”