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Refunding And ECI Provide Early Focal Point Before FOMC Headlines

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys have seen a sizeable pulling back from overnight highs, with the move lower aided by European data with German regional inflation pointing to small upside surprise for the national print later on and surprisingly strong Italian labor data.
  • Currently trading 0-1bp richer, they consolidate a large paring of yesterday’s JOLTS-inspired losses, with the reversal boosted by equity futures sliding after weak earnings for big-tech names after the close.
  • TYH4 at 111-26 is off an earlier high of 112-02 on solid volumes of 375k. The contract continues what’s deemed a corrective cycle as part of a bearish trend, although the extent of the lift suggests scope for an extension in the near-term. The day's high aside, next resistance is now seen at 112-26+ (Jan 12 high).
  • Ahead, ADP offers some volatility prospects before early focus on the Treasury’s QRA landing alongside the employment cost index for Q4. That's followed by an interlude for the MNI Chicago PMI after mixed alternate manufacturing indicators, before the day’s main event in the FOMC announcement and press conference.
  • Fed: FOMC decision (1400ET), Chair Powell’s presser (1430ET)
  • Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement (0830ET)
  • Data: MBA mortgage data Jan 26 (0700ET), ADP employment Jan (0815ET), ECI Q4 (0830ET), MNI Chicago PMI Jan (0945ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy to sell $60B 17-week bills (1130ET)
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