MNI BRIEF: Strong Spending Could Tilt Fed To 100BP Hike-Waller

It might be prudent for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by a full percentage point at its upcoming July meeting if looming data on retail sales point to resilient consumer spending, said Fed Governor Christopher Waller Thursday.

“If the incoming data come in strong .. then I’m going to lean into a higher rate hike at this meeting,” Waller said during Q&A following a speech at a Global Interdependence Center event. The market has a probability of 70% 100 bps this morning and that's kind of getting ahead of themselves, he said.

St. Louis Fed research director Carlos Garriga told MNI this week he sees inflation risks as still tilted to the upside. The June CPI jumped to a new 40-year high of 9.1%, raising concerns that the Fed is falling further behind the curve.