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Regional Currencies Dive, Havens Surge as Russia Commits to Invasion

FOREX
  • The severe escalation of the Ukraine Crisis into an Russian invasion into Ukraine has unsettled global markets, with equities diving (the e-mini S&P touches new YTD lows of 4101.75), havens rallying (gold surging to $1960, highest since mid-2020) and bond yields diving.
  • Haven currencies have received a solid tailwind, with the greenback, JPY and CHF at the top of the G10 table, while growth and commodity proxies are under pressure - putting AUD and NZD on the backfoot.
  • The hardest hit currencies rest in those territories with the closest proximity to Ukraine and Russia, putting the likes of NOK and SEK at the bottom of the pile in G10. The move puts USD/SEK at the highest levels since mid-2020, with USD/NOK creeping toward first resistance at 9.0286.
  • Data highlights Thursday include weekly jobless claims and secondary GDP figures for Q4, but these will likely take a backseat with the Ukraine crisis escalating considerably. The central bank speakers slate is also busy, with BoE's Bailey, Broadbent and Pill on the docket as well as Bostic, Mester, Barkin and Daly of the Fed.
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