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Regional Fed Manufacturing Surveys Clash With PMIs In January

US DATA
  • The Dallas Fed manufacturing index saw a large miss in January, falling to -27.4 (cons -11.0) after a downward revised -10.4 (initial -9.3).
  • The 17pt slide followed a 9.5pt increase, leaving it close to recent lows of -29.1 in May at levels prior to pandemic lows not seen since Jan’16 and 2008-09.
  • It sees a full round of misses for regional Fed manufacturing indices in January following the Empire State (-43.7 vs cons -5.0), Philly Fed (-10.6 vs cons -6.5), Richmond Fed (-15 vs cons -8) and Kansas City (-9 vs cons -3).
  • Weighed heavily by the ever-volatile Empire index slumping to -43.7, the average of the five surveys is -21.1 for the lowest since 2009 outside of Mar-May’20 pandemic months.
  • The regional Fed measures are firmly in contrast to the flash US PMI which increased from 47.9 to 50.3 in January for its highest since Oct’22. Wednesday’s MNI Chicago PMI could help lend weight to which development looks more likely ahead of Thursday’s ISM manufacturing release.

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