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Regional Fed Mfg Softens In Dec But Could Still Be Consistent With ISM Increase

US DATA
  • Today’s release of the Richmond Fed manufacturing index completes the five Regional Fed mfg surveys for December.
  • An unweighted average of the five fell from -4.7 to -9.3 for its lowest since July, but individual moves have been mixed.
  • The Empire State survey was as volatile as ever (-23.6pts to -14.5), with other declines seen in Richmond (-6pts to -11) and Philly (-4.6pts to -10.5). Kansas (+1.0pt to -1) and especially Dallas (+10.6pts to -9.3) bucked the weakness.
  • Taking into account the level difference that’s opened up with the ISM mfg index in recent months, this average decline across regions could still be consistent with analyst consensus for ISM mfg to have increased from 46.7 to 47.2 in Dec (released Jan 3).
  • First though, we’ll see the MNI Chicago PMI on Friday for another steer on the health of manufacturing activity.

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