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Regional Fed Surveys Add Downside Risk To ISM Manufacturing

US DATA
  • The slide in the Richmond Fed mfg index for June follows yesterday’s surprise drop in the Dallas equivalent.
  • Taking an unweighted average, the regional Empire, Philly, Richmond, Kansas & Dallas surveys implied sharper decline in manufacturing activity in June. Combined with last week’s surprising drop in the PMI, it adds downside risk to Friday’s ISM (current consensus 54.5 from 56.1) having resisted a further decline in May – see chart.
  • As for the Richmond survey, -19 is the lowest since May 2020 with a similar decline in forward looking conditions as well. In a small silver lining, “On a positive note, there was some indication of supply chain relief as the indexes for vendor lead time and order backlogs both decreased in June from record highs earlier in the year”.

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