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Regional Fed Surveys and Chicago PMI Point To Small ISM Mfg Increase

US DATA
  • The Dallas Fed activity index completed the July round of regional Fed manufacturing surveys (rising to -20 from -23.2), with the average of the five near unchanged at -10.5 after -10.1 in a mild improvement from levels earlier in the year including a low of -16.5.
  • There was unusually little change on the month across each region, with the largest drop in the Empire survey from +6.6 to +1.1 as it held most of its prior surprise jump.
  • The average remains at a level implying a small improvement in tomorrow’s ISM mfg survey, and indeed consensus looks for 46.9 from 46.0.
  • A similar increase was supported by today’s MNI Chicago PMI despite a small miss, rising to 42.8 (cons 43.4) from 41.5, whilst the S&P Global PMI equivalent saw a sharper increase from 46.3 to 49.0.

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