Regional Risk Ratchets Up Amid On-The-Ground Fighting In Gaza

Amid the significant expansion in ground operations by Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) in Gaza, the risks of the conflict broadening into a wider conflagration are perhaps at their highest points since the 7 October attacks by Hamas. Rather than a full-scale invasion, according to numerous outlets Israeli forces appear to be building up armoured capabilities to the northwest, northeast and south of Gaza City, while remaining outside of the city limits.

• The ground operation in Gaza could prove a flashpoint in the region. A number of actors, both state and non-state, have warned Israel not to launch a ground incursion into Gaza. Speaking on 30 Oct, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, speaking to Bloomberg Television, stated thatthe “Opening of new fronts will be unavoidable and that will put Israel in a new situation that will make it regret its actions...This has reached the point of explosion. Anything is possible and any front can be opened up.”
• The deployment of significant IDF numbers into Gaza could also see the northern border with Lebanon more sparsely defended. Even if numbers remain stable there, then the Gaza offensive could mean less military intelligence focus on the actions of Hezbollah, who could view this time as the most advantageous to attack.
• The market impact of the Israel-Hamas war could prove largely contained if it remains as conflict within Israel's borders. However, a broadening to include other non-state actors, or in the worst-case scenario state actors, could result in a major regional destabilisation.

Source: New York Times