Relatively Less Misery In N America / UK (2/3)

Looked at another way, though, "misery" is relatively high in Germany and France: for both, their respective indices are well above pre-pandemic norms (see chart).

• These countries have had very low volatility (measured by standard deviations) in inflation/ unemployment prior to the pandemic, so both the spike and the rapid pace of the move vs historic norms means they stand out on a relative basis.
• This also highlights the relative stability in the UK and, daresay improvement, across the Atlantic. The UK's relative misery index has basically steadied out at a high level since April, while the Canadian and US indices have stabilized and moved lower since the summer.
• With inflation the more concerning of the two variables in most geographies, there continues to be impetus for further monetary tightening, while fiscal transfers (especially in Europe) will continue to mitigate the "misery" caused by energy inflation in particular.
• In contrast, misery indices for Japan and China have ticked higher but remain fairly contained - both countries are in line to pursue relatively easy policy vs global counterparts.

Source: MNI calculations based on national statistics