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Free AccessRemain Lower Following Strong UK CPI and ECB Pushback
Core/semi-core EGBs have have moved off lows set in early trade, though still sit lower on the day.
- Initial hawkish impulses came from a higher-than-expected UK CPI readings, alongside further ECB policymaker pushback on current rate cut pricing.
- In an interview this morning ECB's Lagarde said it is likely that the Bank will cut rates by the summer, although she warned that "too optimistic" markets (re: cuts) hinder the return of inflation to its 2% goal
- The ECB's pre-meeting blackout period begins tomorrow, with a wide range of policymakers across the hawk/dove spectrum having pushed back on current pricing already this week.
- Bunds are 17 ticks lower at 134.79, after bouncing off the Dec 8 low and key support of 134.37 earlier.
- The German and French curves have twist flattened, pivoting at 10Y tenors. In the former's case, rate cut repricing at the short-end factored more heavily than the 30Y supply in the run-up to the bidding deadline.
- Periphery spreads to Bunds show either side of unchanged on the day.
- December final HICP confirmed flash estimates, with little else on the local data docket today. There remains a raft of ECB-speak from Davos scheduled, alongside US retail sales data this afternoon.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.