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Renewed CHF Weakness, Antipodeans & Scandies Outperform

FOREX
  • The greenback was little phased by rising US yields on Monday, with the USD index marginally in the red, down 0.11% at typing. This coincides with latest indicative positioning data which shows the USD Index net position has consolidated at lows, with outright position now short of 1,896 contracts, the lowest since 2021.
  • CHF remains the poorest performer on the session, a move that's keeping the uptrend in EUR/CHF underpinned. Cycle highs at 0.9849 remain the bull trigger, a break above which puts the cross at the best levels since April last year.
  • Interestingly, UBS noted that while the CHF may continue to depreciate a little in the short-term, the expected tightening of the ECB/SNB and Fed/SNB policy rate spread will likely raise the risk of CHF appreciation in the longer-term.
  • With equity markets consolidating the post-payrolls bounce, AUD and NZD are rising around 0.4%. The recent bounce in AUDUSD has resulted in a break of resistance around the 50-day EMA. This marks a bullish development and suggests the recent bout of weakness between Mar 8 - Apr 1 has been a correction
  • In similar vein, Scandi currencies are among the session's best performers, with NOK shrugging off the pullback in oil prices. EUR/NOK trades close to last week's lows, with the striking of a sizeable wage deal with labour unions adding to domestic inflationary pressure and possibly restricting the Norges Bank's space with which to ease policy this year.
  • USDJPY has traded in a narrow 151.70-90 range, with 152.00 continuing to cap the topside, a level that continues to dominate the focus ahead of this week’s US CPI release and the ongoing threat of possible MOF intervention.
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