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Renewed Optimism Sees USDBRL Narrow Gap With 5.01 Support

BRAZIL
  • USDBRL is trading close to its recent lows amid renewed optimism in the commodity space and an overall weaker greenback. Last week the pair extended the reversal from the Jan 4 high of 5.4787. The move leaves price trading inside a broad multi-month range.
    • Support at 5.1183, the Dec 23 low, has now been breached and the break exposes 5.0108, the Aug 29/30 low and a key support. First resistance is at 5.2399, the 50-day EMA.
  • Finance Minister Haddad said yesterday at Davos that the government wants the fiscal reform and the new fiscal rules to be ready by April.
    • Globo reported that he wants the new fiscal framework to contain a rule to limit spending, and not only the debt level.
    • Market participants will monitor comments by Haddad at the WEF in Davos, where he is attending an open panel with the Presidents of Colombia, Ecuador and Costa Rica.
  • Yesterday, Fabio Kanczuk, former central bank director and currently the head of macroeconomics at ASA Investments in Sao Paulo, sees a high probability that the government will boost BCB’s 2025 inflation target to something between 4% and 4.5% from the 3% set for 2024.
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