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Reopening Categories Mostly Deflating, But Above Pre-Pandemic Levels

US DATA

The key pandemic reopening categories MNI tracks (airfares, lodging, used cars, new cars, car/truck rental) - all of which were key contributors to U.S. inflation in 2021-22 - mostly pulled back for yet another month in December.

  • Airfares saw a third consecutive month of deflation (-3.1% M/M), the 6th contraction in 7 months. Used car prices fell for the 6th consecutive month (-2.6%), while car/truck rental (-1.6% M/M) prices fell for the 6th month in 7.
  • New car prices pulled back only modestly (-0.1%) but fell for the second consecutive month, a streak not seen since the start of the pandemic.
  • The key outlier was lodging prices, which rose by 1.7% M/M after a contraction in November.
  • These categories remain well above their pre-pandemic levels and ahead of the overall gains in the 15% rise for the CPI basket as a whole since February 2020.
  • Airfares are up 34% since Feb 2020 (had peaked at 66%), used cars 40% (peak of 53%), lodging 32% (peak of 34%), new cars 21% (current peak), car/truck rental 77% (104% peak), with most of those peaks taking place in mid-2022.

Source: BLS, MNI

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