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Rep Spanberger Likely To Run For Gov, Opening Key House Seat In 2024

US

Politico has reported that Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA), "has told multiple people she will run for governor in 2025," leaving open a competitive seat that Democrats will likely have to win if they are to retake the House of Representatives in 2024.

  • Politico: "Any announcement from Spanberger would likely not come until after Virginia’s highly competitive state legislative elections this November. But her ambitions — and that possible timeline — threaten to add uncertainty about the battle for the House in 2024... Democrats will have to defend Spanberger’s competitive district to have a shot at retaking the majority."
  • FiveThirtyEight reports that House retirements in this cycle are currently on the low side, with twelve departures and just two "pure retirements" announced so far.
  • FiveThirtyEight notes: "Across all 12 departures, just three involve competitive districts, so this group of open seats won’t necessarily prove decisive in 2024. However, each of those three seats is held by a Democrat, providing Republicans with some takeover opportunities that could aid their efforts to preserve their slim majority."
Figure 1: Number of House Members Who Won't Seek Re-Election

Source: FiveThirtyEight

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