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Free AccessMNI BRIEF: China November PMI Rises Further Above 50
MNI US Macro Weekly: Politics To The Fore
REPEAT: ANALYSTS: Japan Q3 GDP To Show Modest Rise on Exports
--Repeating Story Published on Nov. 2, Updates Last Paragraph
--MNI Median Economist Forecast: +0.4% Q/Q, +1.6% Annualized
--Consumption, Public Works Seen Down After Strong Q2 Gains
TOKYO (MNI) - Japan's gross domestic product for the July-September quarter
is expected by economists to post a modest 0.4% rise on quarter, or an
annualized 1.6%, as a rebound in net exports offset a slump in consumer spending
caused by bad weather.
The median forecast for Q3 GDP is based on projections by 10 economists
which ranged from +0.2% to +0.4% on quarter, or an annualized +0.6% to +1.7%.
The Cabinet Office will release preliminary GDP data for the third quarter
of 2017 at 0850 JST on Nov. 15 (2350 GMT on Nov. 14).
The expected expansion in Q3 would be the seventh consecutive quarterly
gain. GDP surged 0.6% on quarter, or an annualized +2.5%, in April-June led by
strong private consumption and public investment.
Net exports are the main drivers of Japan's sustained but modest economic
recovery in July-September, when a long stretch of rainy days is believed to
have dampened consumer spending, economists said.
Economists expect net exports of goods and services -- exports minus
imports -- to have added 0.4 percentage point (forecasts ranged from +0.3 to
+0.6 point) to the total domestic output in the third quarter for the first
positive contribution in two quarters after pushing down Q2 GDP growth by 0.3
percentage point.
Solid exports of electronics and machinery as well as weaker demand for
smartphones imported from China supported net exports, economists said.
The real export index calculated by the Bank of Japan rose 1.9% on quarter
in Q3 for the first rise in two quarters after -0.5% in the second quarter and
+2.8% in the first quarter.
Capital investment is forecast to have risen a slight 0.2% on quarter for
the fourth straight rise following +0.5% in Q2, with economist forecasts ranging
from -0.7% to +0.7%.
On the downside, the median economist forecast for private consumption,
which accounts for about 60% of GDP, is -0.3% on quarter for Q3 (ranging from
-0.1% to -0.4%) after +0.8% in Q2, which would be the first drop in seven
quarters.
The Cabinet Office's Private Consumption Integrated Estimates index, which
is based on both supply- and demand-side data, posted the first month-on-month
rise in four months in August, up 0.4% after falling a revised 0.1% in July.
But the BOJ's supply-side Consumption Activity Index fell a real 0.6% on a
seasonally adjusted basis for August following a 0.4% rise in July.
Public investment is forecast to have slumped 2.0% on quarter in Q3
(forecast ranged from -0.9% to -2.8%) after rising 6.0% in Q2.
Looking ahead, economists expect a moderate economic recovery to continue
in the October-December quarter, led by a possible rebound in private
consumption and solid business investment.
The average economist forecast for Q3 GDP growth is an annualized 1.50%
rise, down from unusually strong 2.5% gain in Q2, according to the latest
monthly ESP Forecast Survey of 41 economists by the Japan Center for Economic
Research conducted from Oct. 26 to Nov. 1. The survey showed economists
projected GDP growth to continue just above 1% in the coming quarters through
early 2019.
--MNI Tokyo Bureau; tel: +81 90-4670-5309; email: max.sato@marketnews.com
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.