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REPEAT: Dallas Fed Paper: PCE Infl Likely To Be Revised Higher 

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 17:29 GMT Aug 23/13:29 EST Aug 23
--May Be Close to Fed's Inflation Target Than Initial Data Show
--Dallas Fed Economists Construct PCE Infl Nowcast Model
By Jean Yung
     WASHINGTON (MNI) - The economy may be closer to the Federal Reserve's
inflation target than "commonly believed," according to two economists at the
Dallas Fed whose research finds it likely that the personal consumption
expenditures price index rose more than official data suggests in April and
June. 
     The Bureau of Economic Analysis is likely to revise higher June PCE
inflation to 1.6% from 1.4% and April's figure to 1.9% from 1.7% next summer
based on an analysis that factors in Fed-conducted manufacturing survey results,
wrote Alan Armen and Evan F. Koenig in the bank's latest Economic Letter. 
     The BEA releases a first estimate of PCE inflation typically with a
two-month delay and then revises the figure twice in the subsequent months. It
also issues annual revisions every summer. 
     The economists constructed a PCE inflation "nowcast" by combining
information from the consumer price index report with the prices paid index from
regional Fed surveys and found it to be "competitive" with government
statisticians' estimates of PCE inflation. 
     The New York, Philadelphia, Richmond, Kansas City and Dallas Feds each
conduct monthly surveys of prices paid by manufacturers in their districts. 
     Even after the BEA has released its first and third estimate of PCE
inflation, the survey data capture pertinent information not included in those
reports, the economists said. 
     "The earliest official PCE inflation estimates should not be taken at face
value. Recent low inflation readings will likely be revised upward," the
economists said. 
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: jean.yung@marketnews.com
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