Free Trial

REPEAT: Fed's Kashkari: Premature Hikes Costing Infl

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 19:15 GMT Sep 5/15:15 EST Sep 5
--Should Focus on Bringing People Back to Labor Market Until Infl Climbs
--May Be A Lot More Slack in Labor Market Than Fed Sees
By Jean Yung
     WASHINGTON (MNI) - Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel
Kashkari said Tuesday the central bank may be overestimating the tightness of
the labor market and allowing inflation expectations to drift lower by treating
its 2% inflation target as a ceiling. 
     "Until we see inflation start climbing back towards target, we might as
well bring as many people back to the job market as possible" by leaving
interest rates where they are, Kashkari said at a forum at the University of
Minnesota. 
     "We're coming up short on our inflation mandate, there still seems to be
slack in the labor market, wage growth is not high. Why are we raising rates?"
he said. 
     Kashkari, a policy dove who has voted against both rate hikes so far this
year on the Federal Open Market Committee, even went as far as to suggest the
current weakness in inflation that has puzzled officials may be the Fed's
"premature hikes" taking effect with a lag. 
     "About 18 months ago, the Federal Reserve started hiking interest rates.
Maybe we shouldn't be surprised that now inflation is coming in low, that now
job growth seems to be slowing," he said. 
     "Maybe monetary policy is working exactly as we think it should. Maybe our
rate hikes are actually doing real harm to the economy. It's very possible our
rate hikes over the past 18 months are leading to slower job growth, leaving
more people on the sidelines, leading to lower wage growth and leading to lower
inflation and inflation expectations." 
     Even as the headline unemployment rate has fallen to 4.4% from 10% at the
height of the recession, wage growth has been sluggish, Kashkari said, positing
that the Fed might be making "two fundamental mistakes." 
     "We might be overestimating how tight the labor market is. There might be
more slack than is apparent in these headline unemployment numbers," he said,
citing the labor market participation rate of prime age people, which is still
"two years away" from pre-crisis levels. 
     Secondly, by treating the Fed's inflation target as a ceiling, as Kashkari
said he feels some colleagues do sometimes, "We at the Fed may have allowed
inflation expectations to drift lower," he said. 
     "Both of those -- if those really happened -- could explain the low wage
growth, the low inflation and the seemingly tight labor market," Kashkari said. 
     "These premature hikes that we've been embarking on, they're not free and i
think we need to remind ourselves of that." 
--MNI Washington Bureau; +1 202-371-2121; email: jean.yung@marketnews.com

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
}); window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){ window.dataLayer.push({ 'event' : 'logedout', 'loggedOut' : 'loggedOut' }); }); window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){ (function appendPosts () { var policyPosts = document.getElementsByClassName('policy-posts-wrapper')[0]; var policyPostsMenu = document.querySelector('.policy-posts-span'); policyPostsMenu.append(policyPosts); policyPosts.style.display = "block"; var empolicyPosts = document.getElementsByClassName('em-policy-posts-wrapper')[0]; var empolicyPostsMenu = document.querySelector('.em-policy-posts-span'); empolicyPostsMenu.append(empolicyPosts); empolicyPosts.style.display = "block"; var dataPosts = document.getElementsByClassName('data-posts-wrapper')[0]; var dataPostsMenu = document.querySelector('.data-posts-span'); dataPostsMenu.append(dataPosts); dataPosts.style.display = "block"; })(); }); window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){ document.querySelectorAll(".my-mni").forEach(function(item){ item.href="/core/users/email_login/"; item.innerHTML="Log In"; }) }); window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){ document.querySelector('.signup-form').addEventListener('submit', () => { window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; dataLayer.push({ 'event' : 'submission_click', 'event_category': "Sign Up Button Clicks", 'event_label': "Posts" }); }) }); window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){ REBELMOUSE_STDLIB.createElementChangeListener('.signup-form.authentication--form',function(item){ item.onsubmit=function(e){ ga('b.send', 'event', {eventCategory: 'Signup', eventAction: 'CompletedForm', eventLabel:'pageTitle', eventValue:15}); window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; dataLayer.push({ 'event' : 'signup_click', 'event_category': "Signup", 'event_action': 'CompletedForm', 'event_label': 'pageTitle', 'event_value': 15 }); } }) }); window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){ document.querySelectorAll("img").forEach(function (img) { img.addEventListener("contextmenu", function (e) { return false; }); }); document .querySelector(".site-logo img") .addEventListener("contextmenu", function (e) { return true; }); }); window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){ document.querySelector('.signup-form').addEventListener('submit', () => { window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; dataLayer.push({ 'event' : 'submission_click', 'event_category': "Sign Up Button Clicks", 'event_label': "Posts" }); }) }); window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){ REBELMOUSE_STDLIB.createElementChangeListener('.signup-form.authentication--form',function(item){ item.onsubmit=function(e){ ga('b.send', 'event', {eventCategory: 'Signup', eventAction: 'CompletedForm', eventLabel:'pageTitle', eventValue:15}); window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; dataLayer.push({ 'event' : 'signup_click', 'event_category': "Signup", 'event_action': 'CompletedForm', 'event_label': 'pageTitle', 'event_value': 15 }); } }) }); window.REBELMOUSE_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){ let posts = document.querySelectorAll(".all-content-wrapper .widget:not(.stream-story-processed)"); window.check_story_posts(posts, "streamOfPosts"); }); window.REBELMOUSE_LOW_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){ function populateInputsWithAPAPI(c) { document.querySelectorAll('.signup-form input[name="country"]').forEach(el => { el.setAttribute("value", c.country_name); }); document.querySelectorAll('.signup-form .country_name').forEach(el => { el.setAttribute("value", c.country_name); }); let country_code = c && c.country_code ? c.country_code.toLowerCase() : "auto"; document.querySelectorAll('.signup-form .country_code').forEach(el => { el.setAttribute("value", country_code); }); document.querySelectorAll('.signup-form .selected_country').forEach(el => { el.setAttribute("value", country_code); }); } const fetch = function (err, res) { var r = new XMLHttpRequest(); r.open("GET", err, !0), (r.responseType = "json"), (r.onload = function () { var err = r.status; res(200 === err ? null : err, r.response); }), r.send(); }; function setupCountry() { if (window.preventDuplicateExec) { return; } window.preventDuplicateExec = true; window.REBELMOUSE_STDLIB.onElementInViewport({ threshold: 0, firstOnly: true, oneTime: true, selector: ".signup-form", onIntersect: (entry) => { // when you need to get access to that data you call it in that way: let ipapiData = localStorage.getItem("ipapiData"); if (!ipapiData) { fetch("https://ipapi.co/json/", function (err, ipData) { console.log("populating inputs with data from IP API "); localStorage.setItem("ipapiData", JSON.stringify(ipData)); populateInputsWithAPAPI(ipData); }); } else { console.log( "populating inputs with data from IP API data stored in local storage" ); populateInputsWithAPAPI(JSON.parse(ipapiData)); } }, }); } setupCountry(); }); window.REBELMOUSE_LOW_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){ /* const sidebar = document.querySelector('.left-sidebar-container'); const stickyContent = document.querySelector('.sticky-content'); const siteContent = document.querySelector('.all-posts-stream'); if (sidebar && stickyContent && siteContent) { if (siteContent.clientHeight > sidebar.clientHeight) { console.log('grater -> ', siteContent.clientHeight + ' > ' + sidebar.clientHeight); stickyContent.style.height = (siteContent.clientHeight - sidebar.clientHeight) + 'px'; } } */ }); window.REBELMOUSE_LOW_TASKS_QUEUE.push(function(){ function populateInputsWithAPAPI(c) { document.querySelectorAll('.signup-form input[name="country"]').forEach(el => { el.setAttribute("value", c.country_name); }); document.querySelectorAll('.signup-form .country_name').forEach(el => { el.setAttribute("value", c.country_name); }); let country_code = c && c.country_code ? c.country_code.toLowerCase() : "auto"; document.querySelectorAll('.signup-form .country_code').forEach(el => { el.setAttribute("value", country_code); }); document.querySelectorAll('.signup-form .selected_country').forEach(el => { el.setAttribute("value", country_code); }); } const fetch = function (err, res) { var r = new XMLHttpRequest(); r.open("GET", err, !0), (r.responseType = "json"), (r.onload = function () { var err = r.status; res(200 === err ? null : err, r.response); }), r.send(); }; function setupCountry() { if (window.preventDuplicateExec) { return; } window.preventDuplicateExec = true; window.REBELMOUSE_STDLIB.onElementInViewport({ threshold: 0, firstOnly: true, oneTime: true, selector: ".signup-form", onIntersect: (entry) => { // when you need to get access to that data you call it in that way: let ipapiData = localStorage.getItem("ipapiData"); if (!ipapiData) { fetch("https://ipapi.co/json/", function (err, ipData) { console.log("populating inputs with data from IP API "); localStorage.setItem("ipapiData", JSON.stringify(ipData)); populateInputsWithAPAPI(ipData); }); } else { console.log( "populating inputs with data from IP API data stored in local storage" ); populateInputsWithAPAPI(JSON.parse(ipapiData)); } }, }); } setupCountry(); });