REPEAT:MNI ANALYSIS: Australia Mar Retail Sales Flat; Q1 Slows

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 01:50 GMT May 8/21:50 EST May 7

By Sophia Rodrigues

     SYDNEY (MNI) - Australia's retail sales were flat month-on-month in March,

falling short of expectations and first quarter sales also rose less than

expected, indicating a slowing in household consumption in Q1 after a solid Q4.

     The data may be slightly disappointing to the Reserve Bank of Australia

which has forecast consumption growth to remain around the rate seen last year. 

     Data published by Australian Bureau of Statistics Tuesday showed retail

sales were flat m/m in March compared with MNI median forecast for a 0.2% rise.

In Q1 retail sales rose just 0.2% in volume terms, much lower than MNI median

forecast for a 0.6% increase.

     In Q1, retail sales slowed in four of the six categories, with only food

retailing rebounding 0.7% q/q from a 1.2% fall in Q4, and other retailing rising

by a small 0.1% after a 0.5% drop the quarter before. Household goods retailing

slowed to a 1.2% rise from 3.4%.

     In the month of March, retail sales fell in five of the six categories,

rising only in food retailing which was up 0.7% after a 0.3% rise in February.

In trend terms, however, retail sales have risen 0.3% for five months in a row

and shows an improvement from flat growth in August and September last year.

     Household goods retailing continues to support retail sales in trend terms,

up 0.5% in February and March, though this marks some slowing from 0.6% growth

in each of the two months prior. Department stores remain a laggard, down for

four months in a row in trend terms.

     Below is table for retail trade data for March:

                                                March                   February

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                   (M/M %, seasonally         (M/M %, seasonally

                                            adjusted)                  adjusted)

Retail Sales                                      0.0         +0.6 (no revision)

MNI Median                  +0.2 (range -0.1 to +0.5)

Food Retailing                                   +0.7                       +0.3

Household Goods                                  -0.3                       +1.2

Clothing, Footwear etc                           -0.2                       +1.1

Department Stores                                -0.5                       +1.5

Other Retailing                                   0.6                       +0.1

Cafes, Restaurants,

Takeaways                                        -0.8                       +0.6

     Below is table for Retail trade (volume) data for Q1:

                                                   Q1                         Q4

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                                   (Q/Q %, seasonally         (Q/Q %, seasonally

                                            adjusted)                  adjusted)

Retail Sales (Volume)                            +0.2   +0.8 (revised from +0.9)

MNI Median                        +0.6 (+0.1 to +1.3)

Food Retailing                                   +0.7                       -1.2

Household Goods                                  +1.2                       +3.4

Clothing, Footwear etc                           +1.1                       +2.0

Department Stores                                +0.1                       +2.2

Other Retailing                                  +0.1                       -0.5

Cafes, Restaurants,

Takeaways                                        -0.4                       +1.3

--MNI Sydney Bureau; tel: +61 2-9716-5467; email: sophia.rodrigues@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]