MNI: PBOC Drains Net CNY84 Bln Via OMO Weds; Rates Unchanged

CHINA PBOC INJECTS CNY463 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS WEDS

CHINA SETS YUAN CENTRAL PARITY AT 7.1053 WEDS VS 7.1117

MNI: UK JAN FLASH SERVICES PMI 53.8 (FCST 53.1); DEC 53.4

Germany and France Weakness Somewhat Offset By Rest Of EZ

MNI: EUROZONE JAN FLASH SERVICES PMI 48.4 (FCST 49.0); DEC 48.8

MNI BRIEF: Stabilizing Prices Helps BOC Turn Neutral-Freeland

MNI BRIEF: Canada Needs CAD1 Trln To Fix Housing Squeeze- CMHC

MNI BRIEF: Canada Shows No Progress Closing Housing Shortfall

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MNI: PBOC Drains Net CNY84 Bln Via OMO Weds; Rates Unchanged

CHINA PBOC INJECTS CNY463 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS WEDS

CHINA SETS YUAN CENTRAL PARITY AT 7.1053 WEDS VS 7.1117

MNI: UK JAN FLASH SERVICES PMI 53.8 (FCST 53.1); DEC 53.4

Germany and France Weakness Somewhat Offset By Rest Of EZ

MNI: EUROZONE JAN FLASH SERVICES PMI 48.4 (FCST 49.0); DEC 48.8

MNI BRIEF: Stabilizing Prices Helps BOC Turn Neutral-Freeland

MNI BRIEF: Canada Needs CAD1 Trln To Fix Housing Squeeze- CMHC

MNI BRIEF: Canada Shows No Progress Closing Housing Shortfall

REPEAT:MNI ANALYSIS: Job Data Makes Mkt Too Dovish On RBA Hike

MNI (London)
Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 05:10 GMT Sep 13/01:10 EST Sep 13
--RBA Likely To Upgrade Labor Mkt Forecast In November
By Sophia Rodrigues
     SYDNEY (MNI) - Risk of the Reserve Bank of Australia hiking its cash rate
ahead of current market expectations has increased in the wake of the better
than expected August jobs survey that may trigger an upgrade in the Bank's jobs
and inflation outlook.
     Financial markets are currently pricing the first RBA hike of this cycle in
2020, but above-trend growth, a solid labour market and a declining Aussie
dollar could prompt earlier action from the central bank, who are already
guiding that the next move in rates will be higher. 
     Thursday's jobs report was positive throughout, likely outperforming the
RBA's own upbeat view on the labor market laid out in the August Statement on
Monetary Policy. 
     --JOBS, PARTICIPATION RISE
     Data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics Thursday showed the
economy added more jobs than expected in August -- an increase of 44,000
compared with MNI's median forecast of a 15,000 rise. The jobless rate stayed at
5.3% for the second straight month, the lowest level since November 2012, even
with labor participation rate at near-record high of 65.7% (record high is
65.8%). 
     If participation declines in coming months, it raises the prospect of the
unemployment falling to 5.0% ahead of the RBA's expectation of H2 2020, boosting
the chances of accelerating wage growth and the outlook for household
consumption and inflation.
     Even if higher participation ahead prevents the jobless rate from falling
further, it would likely see an overall rise in household income, also
supportive for the RBA's outlook for household consumption and, eventually,
inflation.
     August's report showed the economy has added jobs at an average monthly
rate of 21,900, solid, but below the stellar numbers seen in 2017. Put in
context, total employment has risen by 587,000 in the last 20 months. Prior to
that it took around 35 months for the labor market to record job gains of that
magnitude. Before that it took 49 months.
     --DIMINISHING SLACK
     Another positive take from the latest data is that slack in the labor
market is diminishing, although still at an elevated level. Labor
underemployment fell to 8.1% in August, the lowest since May 2014 and the labor
underutilization rate fell to 13.4%, the lowest since May 2013.
     In the August Statement on Monetary Policy, the RBA said leading indicators
suggest that employment will continue to grow faster than the working age
population. 
     The RBA was unsure whether the demand will be met by those currently
unemployed leading to a reduction in the unemployment rate, those currently
employed working more hours, or an increase in the participation rate. 
     It appears that all the three factors are in play currently, suggesting the
risk to the RBA's forecast is clearly to the upside.
     Adding to the RBA's optimism is second quarter GDP growth which, after
taking into account upward revisions, was higher than expected. The Australian
dollar has declined in recent weeks, despite elevated commodity prices. This
would provide a boost to growth and inflation. 
--MNI Sydney Bureau; tel: +61 2-9716-5467; email: sophia.rodrigues@marketnews.com
--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com
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