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REPEAT: MNI INSIGHT: BOJ Sees CPI To Pick Up on Goods Prices 

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 06:34 GMT Jan 26/01:34 EST Jan 26
By Hiroshi Inoue
     TOKYO (MNI) - Bank of Japan officials still expect slow inflation to pick
up in the second half of the year, led by upward pressure from higher materials
and labor costs, despite soft CPI data released Friday, MNI understands.
     The national average core consumer price index (excluding fresh food) was
flat on the month in December, leaving the year-on-year increase at 0.9%,
unchanged from November.
     The 12th straight year-on-year rise was led by gradual gains in goods
prices while service prices remained depressed, largely due to slow wage hikes
and partly due to the government drive to lower mobile communications costs.
     The core-core CPI (excluding fresh food and energy) rose just 0.3% on year
in December after rising 0.3% in November, indicating consumer price increase
was mainly led by the year-on-year rise in energy costs, which account for about
8% of the total CPI basket.
     --PROCESSED FOOD PRICES UP
     But on the upside, BOJ officials note, the prices for processed food
(canned food, bread, snacks, beverages, etc.), which account for 22% of the
total CPI, have been rising steadily, up 1.0% on year in December after rising
at the same pace.
     The prices for a broader category of foodstuffs excluding fresh food gained
1.2% on year on December, up from the 1.1% rise in November. 
     Goods prices excluding volatile fresh food prices rose 1.8% on year in
December, with the pace of increase unchanged from November. The pace of
increase in overall goods prices reached 2.0% in December, up sharply from the
1.1% rise in November.
     Firms are passing along higher raw materials prices as well as higher
import costs arising from the past depreciation of the yen, the BOJ views.
     BOJ economists believe the bank's cost-push indicator -- which measures the
current upward pressure on prices stemming from a cost increase -- showed that
such upward pressure has been increasing steadily.
     --WEAK SERVICE PRICES
     By contrast, the weakness remains in service prices, which account for just
over a half of the total CPI basket.
     The prices for services ranging from rents and restaurants to medicine and
communications rose just 0.1% in December after rising at the same pace in
November, indicating companies are resisting price hikes amid tough competition
by absorbing higher materials and labor costs by investing in technology and
curtailing business hours.
     --TOTAL CPI IMPACT ON INFLATION EXPECTATIONS
     The core CPI for central Tokyo, which sometimes leads the national trend,
rose 0.7% on year in January, slowing from the 0.8% rise in December.
     In Tokyo, the pace of year-on-year rise in goods prices excluding fresh
food also decelerated to 1.6% in December from 1.7% the previous month.
     But overall goods prices in the capital jumped 2.9% on year from the 2.1%
rise in December as vegetable and fruit prices remained high due to bad weather,
indicating that overall goods prices in the national CPI will accelerate from
the 2.0% gain in December.
     The total CPI in Tokyo marked the third straight year-on-year increase,
rising to 1.3% in January from 1.0% in December, indicating that the national
total CPI will rise further in January from +1.0% in December in data due out on
Feb. 23.
     BOJ economists are monitoring the total CPI, which they believe will
influence inflation expectations among firms and households.
     --OUTPUT GAP IMPROVING
     In the longer term, BOJ officials also expect sustained economic recovery
to help push up consumer prices. The output gap of the economy, which is a
factor of determining inflation rates, has been improving steadily.
     The positive output gap resulting from tighter supply and firmer demand
widened to 1.35 percentage points in the July-September quarter of 2017 from
1.18% points in April-June that year and the BOJ expects it to have risen
further in October-December.
--MNI Tokyo Bureau; tel: +81 90-4670-5309; email: max.sato@marketnews.com
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