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REPEAT: MNI: Only Big CPI Miss Would Prompt RBA Dovishness

MNI (London)
Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 05:00 GMT Apr 10/01:00 EST Apr 10
By Lachlan Colquhoun
     LONDON (MNI) - Only a big undershoot in first quarter inflation data on
April 24 would shift the Reserve Bank of Australia closer to meeting market
expectations of one-to-two rate cuts this year, MNI understands, and for the
moment its intention is to wait and see whether recent positive employment and
retail sales data herald a stronger economy.
     While the RBA's forecast is for inflation to slide to 1.4%, from 1.8% in
the fourth quarter of 2018, and GDP has disappointed, record trade surpluses
from an iron ore boom and a likely fiscal boost in the wake of a general
election widely expected in May have reinforced the relatively optimistic view
at the central bank.
     Investors expect the RBA to cut twice this year to 1%, but MNI's
understanding is that this is unlikely, unless inflation falls well short of its
expectations.
     In its February Statement on Monetary Policy, in which it changed its
outlook for the next rates move from likely to be up to a balanced outlook, with
either an increase or a cut possible, the RBA said it expected inflation to
recover to 1.7% by the final quarter of 2019.
     --MAY MEETING
     The Bank, whose next interest rate decision is due on May 7, has held the
cash rate at a record low 1.5% since November 2016, maintaining its policy
settings regardless of market expectations.
     Expectations for the economy among some investment bank analysts are less
rosy, with a number even positing the possibility of quantitative easing. These
point to a speech late last year by RBA Deputy Governor Guy Debelle, who
described QE as a "policy option in Australia, should it be required".
     But Debelle's comments may have been misinterpreted, and QE remains far
from the minds of RBA policymakers, MNI understands
     Even if the economy fell into recession, asset purchases would remain an
option only of last resort, and the RBA believes it has ample leeway for
conventional monetary policy should the need arise, with scope to lower rates.
     While Debelle said QE was a possible tool, his remarks came in a speech on
the Global Financial Crisis, and the RBA view remains not only that asset
purchases are not currently required but that they may not be in the medium or
even long-term future.
--MNI Sydney Bureau; +61 405322399; email: lachlan.colquhoun.ext@marketnews.com
--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com

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