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Free AccessMNI BRIEF: Canada Commits To Just One Of Three Fiscal Anchors
MNI POLITICAL RISK - Thune Eyes 'Deficit-Negative' Legislation
REPEAT: MNI POLICY: BOJ Kuroda: Wider +0.2%/-0.2% 10-Yr Yield
--Kuroda: Flexible Target Does Not Mean BOJ Raising Rates
TOKYO (MNI) - The Bank of Japan will allow a wider range of +0.2% to -0.2%
for the 10-year Japanese government bond yield, double the current unofficial
range of +0.1% to -0.1%, which should help recover the function of the tepid JGB
market and make large-scale monetary easing more sustainable.
"Trading in the JGB market has shrunk and its function has been reduced. By
allowing a wider trading range, I think the market will regain some vitality,"
Kuroda told a news conference after a two-day policy meeting that ended at 1256
JST (0356 GMT) Tuesday.
"But this does not mean that we are making an adjustment to the policy
stance or seeking to raise interest rates."
He added that there is no need to further expand the 10-year yield trading
band in the near future.
The BOJ's policy stance is unchanged: it will conduct additional easing if
necessary to guide below 1% inflation to a stable 2% and anchor it around that
level, he said.
--OUTPUT GAP VS CPI
Kuroda repeated his mantra that there is no quick fix for the slow pickup
in consumer prices in Japan, and that the BOJ must maintain monetary easing
persistently.
From the macro-economic viewpoint, a continued positive output gap --
firmer demand and tighter supply -- should eventually push up wages and prices
strong enough to drive the annual inflation rate to the BOJ's 2% price stability
target, he predicted.
The governor stressed his initial short-term goal of hitting the 2% target
in about two years from April 2013 by injecting massive cash into the financial
system "was not a mistake" because the failure to do so was caused by two main
unexpected events -- wage growth was too slow to spur consumer spending and
crude oil prices plunged.
--FLEXIBLE TARGET, PURCHASES
The BOJ board decided Tuesday in a 7-to-2 vote to make its long-term
interest rate target and asset purchases more "flexible," allowing the nearly
flat Japanese government bond yield to steepen slightly in line with firmer
growth and inflation.
This will also help recover some functions of the tepid JGB market while
keeping the stimulative effects of large-scale monetary easing.
The BOJ's move is also aimed at reducing the side-effects of prolonged
aggressive easing, which has been in place since April 2013. Negative to zero
interest rates are squeezing profit margins for lenders and hurting pension fund
investments in bonds.
The BOJ adopted "forward guidance" for the policy rates to show that it is
"strengthening its commitment" to guiding low inflation to its stable 2% target.
This should help the bank "persistently continue" aggressive monetary easing as
the stubborn deflationary mindset lingers among businesses and households.
"Today's decision doesn't mean that we are moving toward an exit (from
easing)," Kuroda said. The tweaked policy stance "clearly denies the notion that
it amounts to a rate hike."
--LOWER CPI OUTLOOK
In the face of a slow pickup in consumer prices, the BOJ board also revised
down its medium-term inflation projection, as widely expected, repeating that
downside risk to inflation are higher than upside risks.
In the bank's quarterly Outlook Report, the median forecast for the core
CPI (excluding fresh food) by the nine-member board was revised down to +1.1%
for fiscal 2018 from +1.3% projected in April.
The median inflation forecast for fiscal 2019 was also revised down to
+1.5% from +1.8% made in April and that for fiscal 2020 was lowered to +1.6%
from +1.8%. The forecast excludes the direct impact of a sales tax hike to 10%
from 8% planned in October 2019.
--MNI Tokyo Bureau; tel: +81 90-4670-5309; email: max.sato@marketnews.com
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.