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REPEAT:MNI POST-BOC:Bank of Canada Raises Rates,Cuts "Gradual" 

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 20:00 GMT Oct 24/16:00 EST Oct 24
By Yali N'Diaye
     OTTAWA (MNI) - A hawkish Bank of Canada raised its benchmark interest rate
by 25 basis points as expected and replaced a reference to a "gradual" pace of
future hikes with a declaration that rates should rise to a "neutral" level.
     While U.S.-China tensions and still elevated household debt levels remain
as risks, the BOC drew confidence from a preliminary U.S.-Mexico-Canada
preliminary trade agreement and a moderation in household credit growth as it
boosted its overnight rate target to 1.75%.
     The BOC estimates that neutral lies somewhere between 2.5% and 3.5%,
leaving room for as much as 175 basis points in further rate hikes. Governor
Stephen Poloz told a press conference Wednesday that monetary policy remained
"quite" stimulative.
     The BOC has raised rates five times, by a cumulative 125 basis points,
since July 2017, including 75 basis points this year, under its gradual
approach. The first two hikes reversed 50 basis points in cuts made in 2015 in
response to an oil price shock.
     The central bank projects GDP growth of 2.1% in 2019, the same level as
this year, and for the economy to become better balanced.
     The trade deal with the U.S. and Mexico clears an important cloud over
Canada's economic outlook. The BOC also expects wage growth, still around a
"moderate" 2.3%, to pick up in coming quarters.
     Subdued wage growth, despite intensifying reports of labor shortages and
historically low unemployment rates, has puzzled officials and has been among
factors leading the BOC to stress the possibility of ongoing economic slack.
     The BOC signaled that the decline in Western Canada Select crude prices was
likely temporary in nature, unlike the global oil price shock in 2014. The
spread with U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate "will likely narrow in the
near term as some temporary headwinds are resolved," the BOC said, although
transportation constraints in Canada could take longer to address.
     But the BOC stressed Wednesday that although household credit growth
continues to slow and housing activity is stabilizing following a weak start to
the year, indebtedness remains elevated and it is necessary to monitor how the
economy adjusts to higher rates.
     And, while the USMCA deal reduces uncertainty, it has yet to be ratified by
the three jurisdictions. Mutual U.S. and Canadian tariffs on steel and aluminum
remain in place.
     Global trade tensions also have the potential to escalate, with a fallout
that "could be more severe than what is included in the projection." The risk is
increased by the fact that, unlike the renegotiation of the North American Free
Trade Agreement, there is no clear process associated with the US-China dispute.
     While these are powerful factors that may restrain the BOC, a resolution of
the U.S.-China tensions would be an important upside risk to economic prospects.
Household indebtedness, however, is a structural issue that will take years to
resolve.
     "Yes it's possible that the pace could be a bit faster, but it's also
possible that it could be a bit slower, because as I said, the risks are two
sided and we'll be decidedly data dependent," Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn
Wilkins told the press conference. "We're hoping that participants in the
markets and households will be doing the same thing."
--MNI Ottawa Bureau; +1 613 869-0916; email: yali.ndiaye@marketnews.com
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