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REPEAT: MNI SURVEY: Japan Q3 GDP May Fall on Capex,Consumption

MNI (Singapore)
     TOKYO (MNI) - Japan's gross domestic product for July-September may fall
0.2% from the second quarter, or an annualized rate of -0.9%, due to weak
capital investment and consumption, according to nine economists surveyed by
     Their projections ranged from -0.2% to -0.5% quarterly, or annualized rates
of -0.7% to -2.1%.
     The Cabinet Office will release preliminary GDP data for Q3 at 0850 JST on
Nov. 14 (2350 GMT on Nov. 13).
     The expected contraction follows a gain of 0.7% in Q2, or an annualized
rate of 3.0%.
     The economists expect Q3 capital investment to be flat following +3.1% in
Q2, with forecasts ranging from -1.1% to +1.1%, following +3.1% in Q2.
     Meanwhile, the median of forecast for private consumption, making up 60% of
GDP, is -0.2% in Q3 from Q2 (ranging from -0.5% to 0.0%) following +0.7% in Q2.
     Private consumption was hit by typhoons and a major earthquake, the
economists said.
     The BOJ's supply-side Consumption Activity Index fell 0.1% on a seasonally
adjusted basis for August following a 0.0% fall in July.
     The Cabinet Office's Private Consumption Integrated Estimates Index, which
is based on both supply- and demand-side data, was unchanged in August following
-0.6% in July.
     The economists expect contribution from net exports and services to have
fallen 0.1 percentage point (pp) with forecast ranging from -0.3 pp to 0.0 pp,
following -0.1 pp in the second quarter.
     The Bank of Japan's real export index fell 1.9% on quarter in Q3 after
rising 0.6% in Q2.
     Looking ahead, the economists expect the economy to recover moderately in
Q4. The U.S.-China trade dispute may add risks to global demand and Japan's
exports, they said.
--MNI Beijing Bureau; tel: +86 (10) 8532-5998; email:
[TOPICS: MAJDS$,M$A$$$,M$J$$$]

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