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AUSSIE BONDS

Off Lows

FOREX

Quiet Start

US TSYS

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AUSSIE BONDS

IRZ1 Lifted

ECB
ECB: REPEAT POV: ECB LIKELY SATISFIED WITH POLICY GUIDANCE FOR NOW
-Draghi & Co aren't expected to deviate from the June meeting on either policy
instruments or the accompanying statement. With forward guidance meted out to
markets at the last meeting, inflation and growth dynamics are yet to change
sufficiently to justify any changes. The ECB may provide more clarity on their
plans to wind down APP by year-end and any comments on re-investment will be
keenly eyed.
-Markets have been trimming their net long EUR position consistently since
March. With no August ECB rate decision, Thursday's meeting could extend, or
end, this pattern over Summer.
-Hawkish risk: A more heavy emphasis on the upside risks to inflation and a
willingness to look through short-term EZ data weakness may prompt markets to
price in a rate hike 'through Summer 2019' with more confidence.
-Dovish risk: Markets may read into any explicit concern on trade tensions and
their ability to compromise economic activity as a downside risk for tighter
monpol.
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 | edward.hardy@marketnews.com