REPEAT: POV: FOCUS TO FALL ON GDP OUTLOOK.......>

RBA: REPEAT: POV: FOCUS TO FALL ON GDP OUTLOOK

Tuesday's RBA decision is set to provide little in the way of fireworks after

the Bank's recent change in language regarding the outlook for rates, with a

focus on the Bank's view on Wednesday's GDP release in the wake of the partial

releases that it will have at its disposal. All of the 31 economists surveyed by

BBG look for the RBA to leave its cash rate unchanged at 1.50%. The partial

releases that have already hit allude to downside risks to economists' estimates

and have already triggered multiple downgrades in expectations across the major

investment houses. The RBA's SoMP has 0.6% Q/Q pencilled in for Q4 GDP.

- Central scenario: RBA to acknowledge slower domestic economy in Q4, reiterate

cash rate outlook is balanced, with a continued focus on labour market strength.

- Hawkish risk: Little in the way of scope for a hawkish surprise. The RBA could

disappoint by not being dovish enough or place greater emphasis on the recent

de-escalation of the U.S.-China trade spat.

- Dovish risk: Greater worry over the health of the domestic economy on the back

of the GDP partials and/or greater worry over the state of the housing market.