REPEAT: US Credit Mkt Wk Ahd: Retail Sales, September Minutes

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 22:25 GMT Oct 14/18:25 EST Oct 14

     CHICAGO (MNI) - Highlights in the week ahead includes September retail

sales early Monday and the minutes from the September 25-26 FOMC Wednesday

afternoon amid otherwise muted Fed speaker events.

     No note or bond auctions in the week ahead, though the Treasury will

announce the size of the following week's 2-, 5- and 7Y auctions on Thursday,

October 18. The pace of corporate supply should start to pick up again as

financial stocks work through the earnings calendar.

     Headline risks tied to US politics and foreign trade always an underlying

factor to keep an eye on. Data and Speaker highlights (estimates):

- Monday: Retail sales (0.6%); Empire Manufacturing Index (20.0) and business

inventories (0.6%).

RBS/NatWest economists expect "solid" retail sales figures "helped by a bounce

in auto sales). Manufacturing measures (industrial production, Empire State and

Philly Fed surveys) should also show continued resilience in the factory sector

heading into Q4."

Morgan Stanley economists note that "with auto sales up 2.4%, gas station sales

up 0.8, and sales at home improvement stores up 0.5%, we forecast a 0.7% rise in

headline retail sales."

- Tuesday: NY Fed Business Leaders Index; industrial production (0.2%) and

capacity utilization (78.2%); NAHB home builder index; net TICS flows for

August.

Nomura economists "expect a steady 0.4% m-o-m increase in industrial production

in September, some of which will likely be driven by strong contributions from

autos and mining sectors."

On NAHB housing market index, Nomura expects the index to "ease slightly to 66

from 67 in October. While our forecast of 66 still indicates strong optimism,

the recent incoming data have shown indication that worsening affordability may

be affecting demand for new housing."

- Wednesday: housing starts (1.230M) and building permits (1.266M); September

25-26 FOMC minutes.

RBS/NatWest said the September minutes "should contain few surprises, especially

since numerous Fed officials (including Powell) have spoken since the September

meeting and their message has been mostly consistent with the FOMC statement and

Chairman's press conference."

RBS will be alert for "any discussion surrounding the neutral rate and r*."

Nomura said the "minutes will likely provide important context for some of the

decisions the Committee made in September, including the choice of dropping the

'accommodative' language in the post-meeting statement."

- Thursday: Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index; Weekly jobless claims (213k); September

leading indicators (0.4); St. Louis Fed President Bullard will field audience

questions as he speaks on the US economy & monetary policy, at the University of

Memphis, Tn.

Morgan Stanley economists expect the Conference Board's leading index of

economic indicators to climb "0.5% in September following a 0.4% gain in August.

A print in line with our forecast would suggest continued robust growth in

economic activity through the fourth quarter."

Goldman Sachs economists expect weekly claims to come out on consensus at 210k

while the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index estimate slips below consensus of

+21.0 to +18.0.

- Friday: Quiets down with September existing home sales (5.3); Atlanta Fed

President Bostic on the outlook for the US economy from Macon, GA, Q&A.

Nomura economists expect a "1.6% m-o-m decline in existing home sales to 5.26mn

saar in September from 5.34mn saar in August. Pending home sales, which tend to

lead existing home sales, slowed in August and July and pose downside risk to

September existing home sales."

Nomura posits that "slowing existing home sales suggest waning demand as

affordability continues to deteriorate. Moreover, higher mortgage rates will

likely continue to constrain supply via mortgage rate lock-in despite rising

prices. We think real residential investment will remain a weak spot in the

strong overall economy."

Calendar of next week's market events (prior, estimate):

- Oct 15 Sep retail sales (0.1%, 0.6%) 0830ET

- Oct 15 Sep retail sales ex. motor vehicle (0.3%, 0.4%) 0830ET

- Oct 15 Sep retail sales ex. mtr veh, gas (0.2%, --) 

- Oct 15 Oct Empire Manufacturing Index (19.0, 20.0) 0830ET

- Oct 15 Aug business inventories (0.6%, 0.6%) 1000ET

- Oct 16 Oct NY Fed Business Leaders Index (22.5, --) 0830ET

- Oct 16 13-Oct Redbook retail sales m/m (0.4%, --) 0855ET

- Oct 16 Sep industrial production (0.4%, 0.2%) 0915ET

- Oct 16 Sep capacity utilization (78.1%, 78.2%) 0915ET

- Oct 16 Aug JOLTS job openings level (6.939M, --) 1000ET 

- Oct 16 Aug JOLTS quits rate (2.4%, --) 1000ET

- Oct 16 Oct NAHB home builder index (67, --) 1000ET

- Oct 16 Aug net TICS flows 1600ET

- Oct 16 Aug long term TICS flows 1600ET

- Oct 17 12-Oct MBA Mortgage Applications (-1.7%, --) 0700ET

- Oct 17 Sep housing starts (1.282M, 1.230M) 0830ET

- Oct 17 Sep building permits (1.240M, 1.266M) 0830ET

- Oct 17 12-Oct crude oil stocks ex. SPR w/w 1030ET

- Oct 17 Sep Kansas City Fed LMCI (0.99, --) 1100ET

- Oct 17 Fed releases minutes for Sep 25-26 FOMC, 1400ET

- Oct 18 13-Oct jobless claims (214k, 213k) 0830ET

- Oct 18 Oct Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index (--, 18.0) 0830ET

- Oct 18 StL Fed Pres Bullard, "US Eco & Mon/Pol", Uof Memphis, Tn, Q&A. 0900ET

- Oct 18 NY Fed Sn VP Peach, Korean CoC & Ind in US, Fort Lee, NJ, Q&A. 0900ET

- Oct 18 14-Oct Bloomberg comfort index (59.5, --) 0945ET

- Oct 18 Sep leading indicators (--, 0.4) 1000ET

- Oct 18 12-Oct natural gas stocks w/w (90, --) 1030ET

- Oct 18 17-Oct Fed weekly securities holdings 1630ET

- Oct 19 Sep existing home sales (--, 5.3) 1000ET

- Oct 19 Sep BLS state payrolls 1000ET

- Oct 19 Q4 St. Louis Fed Real GDP Nowcast (+4.54%, --) 1100ET

- Oct 19 Q4 NY Fed GDP Nowcast (+2.2%, --) 1115ET

- Oct 19 Atl Fed Pres Bostic on economic outlook, Macon, GA, Q&A. 1200ET

--MNI Chicago Bureau; tel: +1 312-431-0089; email: bill.sokolis@marketnews.com

--MNI Washington Bureau; tel: +1 202-371-2121; email: kevin.kastner@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]