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UK FEB GFK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE -38 (FCST -43); JAN -45
- UK consumer confidence surprised to the upside in February, increasing seven points to -38 due to broad-based improvements across subindicators.
- Despite continued headwinds of the high cost of living and falling real wages, substantial improvements were recorded across 12-month personal finance and general economic outlooks, the latter returning to February '22 levels.
- The sudden rebound in optimism is best interpreted cautiously, it "may be nothing more than a bubble of hope" warns Joe Staton, Client Strategy Director at GFK.
- Despite improvements, all sub-indices remain severely depressed, implying that spending will remain pressured in the near term, along with growth.
- The BOE's February projections expect household consumption to fall by -04% in 2023, declining in H1 and rising again from Q3.
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