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REPOST...POV: SUBTLE SHIFTS BUT NO..............>

BOE
BOE: REPOST...POV: SUBTLE SHIFTS BUT NO GAME-CHANGERS: Thursday`s BoE MPC
meeting is
likely to produce a 'neutral hold', amid widespread anticipation of no change in
policy or guidance following August`s 25bps Bank Rate hike to 0.75%.
- The OIS curve implies 0% chance of a hike in the base rate Thursday. The next
meeting with higher than 50/50 probability of a hike is not until June 2019.
- Our policy team notes a potential dovish nudge in September, pointing out that
Jonathan Haskel (who in his confirmation hearing cited structural reasons why
wage pressure may be relatively weak) replaces hawk Ian McCafferty on the MPC.
- No new projections Thurs but the timing of the next inflation report due Nov 1
could present a communications headache, as it comes before the newly-announced
mid-Nov UK/EU summit to sign a Brexit deal, and the next report due only Feb 7.
- Hawkish risk: No change, 9-0 vote. MPC plays up surprising econ and wage
strength in July. OIS curve prices in slightly earlier 2019 hike, GBP rises.
- Dovish risk: No change, 9-0 vote. MPC downplays GDP data, reiterates Brexit
uncertainty. OIS curve flattens, 2019 hike possibly priced out, GBP falls.
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