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Free AccessRepublican Candidates Fail To Make Inroads Into Trump's Primary Lead
Polling for the 2024 Republican Presidential primary election suggests that none of the GOP candidates challenging former President Donald Trump have managed to make a dent in Trump's frontrunner status, despite his mounting legal issues.
- There are currently 13 declared candidates for the Republican nomination. Trump and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R-FL) are the clear favourites, with Nikki Haley and Senator Tim Scott (R-SC), both from South Carolina, the most likely to mount a credible challenge.
- Politico reports: "The difficulty for Trump’s competitors is that nothing — not even about the indictment — seems to be dragging Trump down. Trump’s polling did not appear to budge no matter how many times his rivals noted his mishandling of national secrets, after Trump pleaded not guilty to charges he kept top-secret government documents in his Palm Beach home and obstructed the government’s investigation into his possession of classified material.... But even worse for his rivals: Each of their successive entries into the race hasn’t resulted in much polling movement, either...."
Figure 1: Republican Primary Polling
Source: FiveThirtyEight
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.