'Republican Front' Reduces Total 3-Party Contests To Just 89 Seats

Ahead of the 7 July legislative election second round, it has been confirmed that just 89 constituencies will see three parties contesting the seat, and two constituencies with four parties seeking election. The so-called 'republican front' of parties opposed to the right-wing nationalist Rassemblement National (National Rally, RN) has seen a large number of third-placed candidates from the leftist New Popular Front (NFP) alliance and the centrist Ensemble bloc supportive of President Emmanuel Macron withdraw in order to limit the prospect of a RN majority.

• Following the 30 June first round a total of 306 of the 577 seats in the National Assembly faced a three-party contest (and five faced four-party contests), while the number of two-party contests has leapt from 190 to 409.
• Of the 409 'duels', 149 will see the RN against the NFP, 134 are Ensemble-RN contests, and 45 see an RN candidate against the centre-right Les Republicains (LR).
• Of the 89 remaining 'triangular' contests, 69 see the three main forces - RN, NFP, Ensemble - face off against one another.
• The withdrawals make an RN majority less likely, but not impossible. There is no guarantee that voters whose first preference candidate has dropped out will suddenly switch their vote to their 'republican front' option. Indeed, many left-wing NFP voters could prove more likely to abstain than put their support behind the Macron bloc, even if it would serve to limit RN gains (and indeed vice versa for centrists backing the NFP).