'Republican Front' Snuffs Out RN Rise, Focus Now On Political Paralysis

Efforts by the leftist New Popular Front (NFP) and President Emmanuel Macron's centrist Ensemble bloc to form a 'republican front' in the second round of legislative elections on 7 July to limit gains for the right-wing nationalist Rassemblement National (National Rally, RN) have worked extremely effectively.

• Despite the RN leading all pre-election polling and winning a plurality of the vote (37.1%), the party came in a disappointing third place with 142 of the 577 seats, a gain of 53. The major beneficiaries are the NFP, which won only 25.8% of the vote but emerges as the largest political force with 180 seats in the National Assembly. Ensemble came in second place with 159 seats, a loss of 86
• An NFP plurality was set as the second most likely election outcome in MNI's Election Preview. In our scenario analysis we highlighted that "one notable issue will be finding an acceptable prime minister candidate." We also note that "there is also the prospect [...] it proves impossible for a workable minority government to continue. This could spur a technocratic government, " See PDF link:

MNIPOLITICALRISK-FranceElectionPreview-LP04-TOM-LAKE.pdf

• With three roughly-similar sized groups, gov't formation will prove tricky. For Macron's Ensemble the focus will be on peeling off centre-left and green assembly members from NFP to create a workable bloc. For NFP it will be maintaining unity and seeking an acceptable PM candidate that can gain the backing of the leftist LFI and more moderate parties in the alliance.
• The National Assembly will convene for a 15-day session from 18 July. At this time the 'parliamentary groups' will be formalised. As such, there is the prospect of some shifting about that could impact the strength of the leftist and centrist groups.