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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Split Ticket has concluded, in newly published Senate ratings, that Republicans are favoured to win 51 Senate seats in November.
- Split Ticket: “Our forecast finds Republicans favored in 51 seats, with Democrats favored in 48. In our simulations, Republicans hold the Senate 84 percent of the time.”
- The forecast supports a widely-held view that control of the Senate may ultimately come down to the Montana race, where Senator Jon Tester (R-MT) is polling behind Republican challenger Tim Sheehy. To win the race, Tester would likely have to outperform Harris by upwards of 15 points, a heavy lift considering the rarity of split-ticket voting in the highly polarised modern political environment.
- Split Ticket concludes: “…it’s a minor miracle that virtually no battleground state’s senate seat is even that competitive at the moment — the only places Democrats are truly at risk of losing seats are in deep-red states. But that is all the GOP needs, and given the decline in ticket-splitting that has hurt red-state Democrats in the past decade, it makes sense to not bet against polarization.”
Figure 1: 2024 Senate Election Ratings
Source: Split Ticket
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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