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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
Executive Summary
- Nonfarm payrolls growth surprised lower for its first time since October, with a still solid 175k vs consensus of 240k after expectations had climbed in recent months on strong supply side gains.
- Private payrolls saw a smaller miss as government job creation slowed sharply, although private payrolls continue were even more reliant on the non-cyclical health & social assistance industry.
- AHE saw a sizeable miss with 0.20% M/M (cons 0.3). Most analysts looked for 0.3% but as flagged a few had warned on a reversal of a positive calendar effect but it’s more notable after hours worked fell.
- The unemployment rate surprised higher but rounding exaggerated the move, up just 0.03pps to 3.86%. Nevertheless, the underemployment U6 rate is trending higher.
- Goolsbee: "the more jobs reports like this, the more confident we can be the economy isn’t overheating.”
- Treasuries rallied sharply before paring some of the gains with help from strong ISM Services prices paid. Building on the post-payrolls dovish reaction, the first cut is almost fully priced for September.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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