RESEND: POV: Today's Riksbank meeting is...>

RIKSBANK: RESEND: POV: Today's Riksbank meeting is unlikely to be a blockbuster,

following up the December rate hike. At the December meeting the Riksbank stated

that it expected "the next rate rise will probably occur during the second half

of 2019". The Riksbank also stated that it expected a temporary slowdown in

domestic data (there certainly has been a slowdown) but the global slowdown,

particularly in Germany and across the Eurozone has also been significant.

- The key for this meeting will be how much the global slowdown is reflected in

the updated growth forecasts and repo rate path.

- Most sell-side previews are pointing to an unchanged repo rate path with

downside risks. Given that SEK has been the weakest currency in the G10 so far

this year, it seems to us that the market is expecting a more dovish stance and

could well be positioned for a small downward revision to the repo rate

forecast. This would suggest that an unchanged repo rate could well see EURSEK

come under some pressure.

- The dovish risk is, of course, that the Riksbank meaningfully push back their

expectations of when the next hike will be.