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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US DATA
We will get more information on housing activity with May starts/permits data out Tuesday, but as noted, rebounding homebuilder sentiment per the NAHB's June survey points to a recovery underway.
- Note that residential investment has dragged on GDP for 8 consecutive quarters, in keeping with the sharp drop in homebuilder confidence which is historically consistent with recessionary conditions, including drags of over 1.0pp to overall GDP in Q3 and Q4 2022 (on a % Q/Q annualized basis).
- A move into non-subtraction, and even contribution territory looks increasingly likely in H2 2023 and beyond.
- Indeed, historically the housing cycle has been closely correlated with the economy cycle as a whole, often marking turning points for the labor market for instance.
- We have eyed deteriorating homebuilder sentiment as pointing to a deteriorating jobs market in H2 2023, which may yet happen - but the rapid bounce back in sentiment in the past few months has few precedents (see chart) and suggests that such weakness may be short-lived.
Source: NAHB, BLS, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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