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Retail Sales Ahead - 0830ET

CANADA DATA
  • Retail sales (released 0830ET) act as a prelude to next week’s Q2 GDP data in one of the last high tier releases before the BoC decision on Sep 6.
  • Consensus sticks with the 0.0% M/M from the previous advance for June, whilst it expects the new details to show an underlying improvement with ex autos +0.3% M/M after 0.0%. It is likely to have seen a decline in volume terms.
  • However, note that RBC cardholder data suggest overall consumer spending (for GDP purposes) might have been stronger than the retail data suggest with particularly firm purchases of discretionary services.
  • As for the July advance, CIBC expect it to imply continued lacklustre growth in real terms.

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