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Retail sales and public finance data due at 7:00BST

UK DATA
  • UK retail sales data due this morning is expected to come in at -0.4%M/M on both a headline and ex-fuel basis in September.
  • This would largely reverse the moves seen in August when the headline number rose +0.4%M/M while the ex-fuels measure rose +0.6%M/M.
  • On an index-level basis the ex-fuels measure has been largely flat since around September 2022 (having fallen over 10% from their 2021 pandemic-driven peaks). This has translated to Y/Y prints that have been trending up through 2023 from a low of -7.8%Y/Y in December 2022 due to these base effects. September's Y/Y ex-fuels print is expected at -0.3%Y/Y, which would be the highest print since April 2022.
  • The retail sales figure tends to be volatile, so it's not something that tends to have a big policy impact or that the Bank of England pay attention to on a monthly basis (although they do still look at the more medium-term trends).
  • Although we may get some short-term market reaction to the data, we don't expect it to be the driver for UK markets through the majority of the day.
  • Public finance data is also due for release, but markets have largely overlooked this data over the past few months.
  • Also note that GfK consumer confidence data was release overnight (see more here).
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