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Retail Sales Beat Estimates, Tsy Yields Climb Higher

US TSYS

Tsys extend session lows late after early see-saw trade. Post-Data Pressure:

Rates reversed early gains/extended lows after better than ests' Retail Sales gained +1.7% (+1.4% est), control group +1.6% M/M (+0.9%).
  • Major contributors to sales gains: electronics & appliances and building materials & garden, marrying up nicely with the stronger Home Depot /WMT earnings earlier today.
  • After some initial two way, yield curves added to Monday's steepening as early long end support evaporated by late morning.
  • Large Eurodollar Block: -30,000 EDZ2 99.070 (+0.010), sold through 99.075 post time bid at 111407ET, 99.055 last, sporadic offer picked-up as futures extended lows.
  • Early heads up on the lead quarterly Dec'21 futures roll to March'22: rolling has begun with First Notice (when March'22 futures take lead) only two weeks away on November 30. That said, percentage of Dec'21 rolled remains in low single digits.
  • On tap Wednesday: Building Permits (1.586M rev, 1.630M) and Housing Starts (1.555M, 1.580M). Multiple Fed Speakers and Tsy 20Y Bond Sale.
  • Current 2-Yr yield is up 0.2bps at 0.5179%, 5-Yr is up 1.3bps at 1.2653%, 10-Yr is up 1.9bps at 1.6335%, and 30-Yr is up 2.5bps at 2.0207%.
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