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Retail Sales Data Due, Central Bank Economist Survey

COLOMBIA
  • As a reminder, fuel prices are expected to gradually increase from October, to phase out subsidies that will cost the equivalent of about 2.5% of gross domestic product this year, according to Finance Minister Jose Antonio Ocampo.
  • The government hasn’t said how far or how fast gasoline prices will rise, while the price of diesel won’t change. That makes it difficult to estimate the impact of the measures, but they are certain to boost inflation which was already at a 23-year high of 10.8%.
    • The chief economist at Corficolombiana estimates that gasoline prices will increase by 300 pesos in the next three months, which would send inflation to 11.5% by the end of the year from a previous estimate of 11.3%. (BBG)
    • The latest Central Bank Economist Survey is expected today, following the August reading of annual inflation rising to 10.84% Y/y.
  • Today’s domestic docket includes:
    • 1600BST/1100ET: July Industrial Production YoY, prior 8.8%
    • 1600BST/1100ET: July Manufacturing Production YoY, est. 7.8%, prior 12.3%
    • 1600BST/1100ET: July Retail Sales YoY, est. 12.0%, prior 17.2%
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