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Retail sales data to have little impact on the MPC or markets

UK DATA
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  • The ONS notes that there was sales growth in "clothing and department stores grew because of new collections but falls in food stores and fuel retailers offset this growth. Meanwhile online sales increased, particularly for clothing retailers, as wet weather affected footfall."
  • The ONS also notes that on a 3m/3m, basis (which smooths out the Dec/Jan volatility), sales volumes fell by -0.4% in the 3-months to February versus -1.0% in the 3-months to March.
  • The bigger picture is that retail sales are broadly flat over the past 3m/3m period - and GDP growth for Q1 is expected by both the BOE and market to also be close to flat.
  • This is only a small surprise versus consensus expectations and as such we expect it to have no real impact on upcoming MPC decisions or the market.
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  • The ONS notes that there was sales growth in "clothing and department stores grew because of new collections but falls in food stores and fuel retailers offset this growth. Meanwhile online sales increased, particularly for clothing retailers, as wet weather affected footfall."
  • The ONS also notes that on a 3m/3m, basis (which smooths out the Dec/Jan volatility), sales volumes fell by -0.4% in the 3-months to February versus -1.0% in the 3-months to March.
  • The bigger picture is that retail sales are broadly flat over the past 3m/3m period - and GDP growth for Q1 is expected by both the BOE and market to also be close to flat.
  • This is only a small surprise versus consensus expectations and as such we expect it to have no real impact on upcoming MPC decisions or the market.