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Retail Sales disappoint for second month in a row:

UK DATA
Data BulletDataHomepageBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets
  • Ex-fuel retail sales disappointed printing -2.0% M/M (vs -0.8% consensus, -0.6% prior), reflecting broad-based retail sales volume deterioration.
  • Total retail sales volume fell even more, by 2.3% M/M (vs -0.5 consensus). This was driven by Automotive fuel sales volumes showing their largest monthly fall since October 2021.
  • As well as the deterioration in automotive fuel sales (-4.9% M/M vs +3.6% prior), the decline was driven by Non-food stores sales volumes (the total of department, clothing, household and other non-food stores) falling by 4.1% in April. This was the joint largest fall (shared with December 2023) since January 2021. Within nonfood, falls were strongest within clothing retailers, sports equipment, games and toys stores, and furniture stores, with retailers reporting poor weather and low footfall as the main reasons.
  • In addition, food stores sales volumes fell for the third consecutive month, which retailers reported was due to the cost of living and impact of rising fuel prices.
  • To account for volatility in the series, looking at Mar/Apr 2024 Y/Y, the fall is smaller at -1.1%, suggesting the deterioration may be due to bad weather in April, that won't lead to a sustained trend.
  • This led to annual figures falling to -2.7% Y/Y for retail sales (vs -0.2% consensus), and -3.0% Y/Y for retail sales ex-fuel (vs -1.2% consensus).
  • Overall, we don't think this print has any monetary policy relevance given the volatile nature.
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  • Ex-fuel retail sales disappointed printing -2.0% M/M (vs -0.8% consensus, -0.6% prior), reflecting broad-based retail sales volume deterioration.
  • Total retail sales volume fell even more, by 2.3% M/M (vs -0.5 consensus). This was driven by Automotive fuel sales volumes showing their largest monthly fall since October 2021.
  • As well as the deterioration in automotive fuel sales (-4.9% M/M vs +3.6% prior), the decline was driven by Non-food stores sales volumes (the total of department, clothing, household and other non-food stores) falling by 4.1% in April. This was the joint largest fall (shared with December 2023) since January 2021. Within nonfood, falls were strongest within clothing retailers, sports equipment, games and toys stores, and furniture stores, with retailers reporting poor weather and low footfall as the main reasons.
  • In addition, food stores sales volumes fell for the third consecutive month, which retailers reported was due to the cost of living and impact of rising fuel prices.
  • To account for volatility in the series, looking at Mar/Apr 2024 Y/Y, the fall is smaller at -1.1%, suggesting the deterioration may be due to bad weather in April, that won't lead to a sustained trend.
  • This led to annual figures falling to -2.7% Y/Y for retail sales (vs -0.2% consensus), and -3.0% Y/Y for retail sales ex-fuel (vs -1.2% consensus).
  • Overall, we don't think this print has any monetary policy relevance given the volatile nature.